How bookies come up with football betting odds

I always find it astonishing that most football bettors don’t even know how the bookies come up with their odds. So, here’s a quick explanation: Odds are basically a reflection of probabilities. Each bookie employs hundreds of statisticians to come up with these probabilities. So, imagine FC Barcelona playing away at PSG. For this match, statisticians have come up with the following outcome probabilities.

These probabilities are then converted into odds by dividing each probability by 100.

Notice that if you add all the above probabilities together you would get about 100%.

100% represents a fair market margin. Meaning that if all the markets attract equal action from the bettors over a sample size of many bets there will be no profit for either the bettors or the bookmakers.

In other words, a fair market margin means that there is no advantage either for the bettor or for the bookmaker. And everyone should break even in the long run.

The bookies, just like you and I, are in this to make a profit.

So, what they do is, they add their own margin to these odds.

After the margin is added, the probabilities and odds may look something like this.

If you add all new probabilities together you would get about 109.4%. The 9.4% represents the long term profit the bookie is expected to make. Usually, the bookie margin ranges anywhere from 2% (for sharp bookies) up to 25% (soft bookies).

Meaning that a bookie will make anywhere between £20 to £250 for every £1000 wagered by the bettors.

Value Betting Football Strategy

The holy grail of football betting strategies.

A value bet is when the probability of a bet winning is greater than the probability reflected in the odds that a bookie provides.

With value betting, it is important to bet for the long-term.

The goal with this football betting strategy is not to win every bet, the goal is to constantly place bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the odds.

When betting on a large volume of bets the variance will even out and only sports bettors who are able to consistently beat the odds at the sharp bookmakers will be profitable.

You can find all 24H Soccer Win’s value bets in the Free Tips section of the website.

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